rongha_2000
04-30 05:24 PM
Its kind of an interesting thought process, but I am curious why do you assume that NON-Perm cases will be very few? And also forgive me for being negative here but you are "assuming" all those parameters which are critical to the decision making process. This is a very interesting approach and if we can get real data to back this up, then nothing like it. (BEC cases will be a big factor in this calculation)
All,
I am planning to write a letter to USCIS and DOS , suggesting the visa cut off dates for India. Kindly critique it. I will send this letter over the weekend and also post over here.
The rational are as follows (Of course , I will word them properly).
I have grouped applicants in the following groups
BEC, PERM ROW and PERM Non Row Countries. I then will estimate the visa usage by each categories using sources like FLCdata and DHS publications. Along the way I will make some assumption but the results should be realistic.
Fact 1: Per DOL , As of April'06 50K BEC labors were certified. Certification rates were 50% of labor processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
Fact 2: Per DOL, as of Sep'07 362,000 BEC labor were processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
Fact 3: Per DHS, total EB (2, 3, 4 and 5 only) visas issued in FY’07 were 135,479 and FY’06 was 122,121.
Fact 4: FLC data center indicates that between March’05 and Oct’05, ~6000 PERM applications were filled and certified.
Fact 5: Per FLC data , 46,340 ROW PERM applications were certified in FY’06 and 47, 251 ROW applications were certified in FY’07.
Assumption 1: Based on Fact 1, let us assume for FY’06 50K Eb2 and Eb3 visas were used for the people stuck in BEC.
Assumption 2: Based on Fact 1 and Fact 2, let us assumed that in total 200,000 labors were certified between March'05 and Sep'07 by BEC.
Assumption 3: The visa backlog is not an issue for the ROW countries. In other words, their dates could be made current.
Assumption 4: NIW applications are negligible
Assumption 5: Based on Fact 1 and Fact 3, let us assume in BEC accounted for 50K visa in FY’07.
Assumption 6: 50% of visas are used by retrogressed countries.
Calculation 1: BEC visa used in FY’06 = 122,121- 6,000 – 46,340 = 69,781
Calculation 2: BEC people remaining as on 10/01/2006 = 200,000-69,781-50,000= 80,219
Calculation 3: BEC people remaining as on 10/01/2007: Since total visas issued in FY07 > (47,251 + 80,219) therefore negligible. Also, assume that balance 8,000 application went to NIW.
So in other words, the dates in any case has to be greater than 10/01/2005 for the retrogressed countries. For the simple reason that Non-Perm cases would very few.
All,
I am planning to write a letter to USCIS and DOS , suggesting the visa cut off dates for India. Kindly critique it. I will send this letter over the weekend and also post over here.
The rational are as follows (Of course , I will word them properly).
I have grouped applicants in the following groups
BEC, PERM ROW and PERM Non Row Countries. I then will estimate the visa usage by each categories using sources like FLCdata and DHS publications. Along the way I will make some assumption but the results should be realistic.
Fact 1: Per DOL , As of April'06 50K BEC labors were certified. Certification rates were 50% of labor processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
Fact 2: Per DOL, as of Sep'07 362,000 BEC labor were processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
Fact 3: Per DHS, total EB (2, 3, 4 and 5 only) visas issued in FY’07 were 135,479 and FY’06 was 122,121.
Fact 4: FLC data center indicates that between March’05 and Oct’05, ~6000 PERM applications were filled and certified.
Fact 5: Per FLC data , 46,340 ROW PERM applications were certified in FY’06 and 47, 251 ROW applications were certified in FY’07.
Assumption 1: Based on Fact 1, let us assume for FY’06 50K Eb2 and Eb3 visas were used for the people stuck in BEC.
Assumption 2: Based on Fact 1 and Fact 2, let us assumed that in total 200,000 labors were certified between March'05 and Sep'07 by BEC.
Assumption 3: The visa backlog is not an issue for the ROW countries. In other words, their dates could be made current.
Assumption 4: NIW applications are negligible
Assumption 5: Based on Fact 1 and Fact 3, let us assume in BEC accounted for 50K visa in FY’07.
Assumption 6: 50% of visas are used by retrogressed countries.
Calculation 1: BEC visa used in FY’06 = 122,121- 6,000 – 46,340 = 69,781
Calculation 2: BEC people remaining as on 10/01/2006 = 200,000-69,781-50,000= 80,219
Calculation 3: BEC people remaining as on 10/01/2007: Since total visas issued in FY07 > (47,251 + 80,219) therefore negligible. Also, assume that balance 8,000 application went to NIW.
So in other words, the dates in any case has to be greater than 10/01/2005 for the retrogressed countries. For the simple reason that Non-Perm cases would very few.
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kirupa
11-21 05:42 AM
The poll will go live tomorrow (Saturday) :)
rajutata
08-25 09:23 AM
You can apply for visitor visa and visit canada. if you PR is approved before you need to go to Canada, You do not need any visa
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sathyaraj
11-02 10:38 AM
I think you still do not understand my point, EB3 PDs are stuck at 2001/2002. How will nurses be able to use these EB3 visas with their PD > 2006 ?
No. It will not help.
Schedule A workers first get GCs from EB3 quota and when they finsih that, they take the recapture numbers. When there is no recapture rule, they are treated as other regular EB3s.
Do you think there are only 61K nurses waiting in line?
Nurses from the whole world will want to come here if it is made easy for them and are qualfied. Who will not? Ask yourself.
No. It will not help.
Schedule A workers first get GCs from EB3 quota and when they finsih that, they take the recapture numbers. When there is no recapture rule, they are treated as other regular EB3s.
Do you think there are only 61K nurses waiting in line?
Nurses from the whole world will want to come here if it is made easy for them and are qualfied. Who will not? Ask yourself.
more...
cox
October 16th, 2005, 08:07 PM
There was a piece on one of the news shows this AM. A guy still makes Daguerreotypes (the actual plates, from raw materials!) in New York City. Basically that stuff must be like ISO 0.05 because he was making exposures from 30 seconds to 4 minutes, achieving the 'missing people and cars' effect as a result.
Interesting, you have to admire the guy's determination. A lot of work to reproduce that technique. I have noticed that with very long exposures, anything moving very fast compared to the shutter speed just disappears, since they don't contribute enough light to the whole exposure to be distinguished from the background. I'm trying to figure out how to keep the motion blur of the subjects in daytime, which seems to require a middle ground exposure time as compared to typical exposure time of <1s or long exposures of minutes at a time.
Interesting, you have to admire the guy's determination. A lot of work to reproduce that technique. I have noticed that with very long exposures, anything moving very fast compared to the shutter speed just disappears, since they don't contribute enough light to the whole exposure to be distinguished from the background. I'm trying to figure out how to keep the motion blur of the subjects in daytime, which seems to require a middle ground exposure time as compared to typical exposure time of <1s or long exposures of minutes at a time.